Ireland set for ‘stormier’ winter before hottest year EVER as Met Eireann warns major El Nino to ‘supercharge’ weather

IRELAND is facing another miserable, wet and stormy autumn and winter this year thanks to an “unprecedented” weather phenomenon.

A record-shattering El Nino effect is predicted to “supercharge” the currents of air which bring wet weather towards us over the Atlantic.

A maroon car submerged in floodwaters with people standing on higher ground in the background.
Last winter saw endless rain and plenty of floodingCredit: Niall Carson/PA Wire
People in rain gear wait at a Dublin bus stop as a yellow double-decker bus and tram pass on a wet street.
And it looks like we are heading for a similar winter this year due to the El NinoCredit: Alamy

This means we might see a similar winter to last year, which saw 61 consecutive days of rain recorded at Dublin Airport and 77 days of rain in Newport, Co Mayo.

And globally the weather trend is expected to make 2027 the hottest year ever, breaking the previous record set in 2024.

The El Nino is a powerful natural phenomenon which pushes up global temps and can increase the risks of extreme weather.

The weather pattern occurs every two to seven years and lasts around a year.

Trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the Pacific can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastwards.

Heat is then released from the ocean into the atmosphere, lifting global temps and shifting rainfall patterns.

Ireland is relatively sheltered from the impacts of El Nino, but the entire global weather system is connected so any changes on the other side of the world can affect us.

And climate boffins are expecting sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific to rise to a highest-ever recorded 3C above average.

Some models even show sea-temps could rise to 4C above average.

This would be the strongest El Nino since records began in 1950 and probably the strongest since the late 19th-century, Met Eireann climatologist Paul Moore told us.

The main impact on Ireland will be a “supercharging” of the subtropical jet stream, which travels from the southern United States towards us.

This means more low pressure systems will travel our way and towards Western Europe in general.

Mr Moore said: “So there’s a higher likelihood of stormier conditions and wetter conditions.

“We’ve also got very warm sea surface temperatures to the south of Ireland and the UK, and in the Bay of Biscay and along Western Europe.

“So that increases the moisture content in the atmosphere and it also increases the potential for heavier rainfall when we do get these low pressure systems coming our way.”

Stronger and more frequent storms are also possible, but at the moment forecasters can’t predict if they will hit Ireland or elsewhere in Europe.

One small positive is that a strong subtropical jet stream will also bring warmer southwesterly winds, making winter milder.

And, while Mr Moore said it is impossible to predict how hot it will be in Ireland, the stonking El Nino effect is highly likely to make next year the hottest on record globally.

The current record was set in 2024, which saw temperatures 1.55C above average compared to pre-industrial levels.

Mr Moore said: “It’ll be beaten again next year, and some of the projections are looking at it being 1.7C above pre-industrial.”

He added that the combined effect of a powerful El Nino and background climate change will make next year an “unprecedented event”.

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